Oracle Divergence · PM vs PF
When Polymarket and Predict.fun resolve the same BTC Up/Down market the opposite way. PF reads Chainlink Data Feeds BTC/USD push aggregator (BSC); PM reads Chainlink Data Streams BTC/USD (real-time). Both are Chainlink BTC/USD but different products; divergence concentrates on near-zero net moves.
10,706 resolved pairs · Tue, 05 May 2026 22:35 → Tue, 02 Jun 2026 22:50
updated Tue, 02 Jun 2026 23:01:29 UTC
Divergence rate · 5m
3.50%
281/8028
Divergence rate · 15m
1.49%
40/2678
User PnL on divergence
$-2.3K
321 pairs
User PnL on agreement
$12.6K
10385 pairs
Avoidable (at-close ceiling)
$1.2K
@ p≥0.4
mechanismBoth venues use Chainlink BTC/USD, but different products. PF resolves from Chainlink Data Feeds — a push aggregator on BSC that updates only on ~0.1% deviation or a heartbeat (observed median gap 66s, up to ~80s). PM resolves from Chainlink Data Streams — a low-latency pull oracle (proxied here by Binance BTCUSDT, which tracks PF's recorded close reads to ~$2). When BTC barely moves over the window, the two feeds' slightly different price compositions disagree on the sign of the move and the venues resolve opposite. The driver is the magnitude of the net move, not push-feed lag — staleness shows no correlation with divergence (ρ≈0). Empirically, divergence runs ~44% when the PF net move is under $1 and falls to ~0% above $20.
Divergence rate over time
daily · 30d
P(divergent) vs |PF net move|
bucketed empirical probability
Distribution of PF net move
agree vs divergent — divergence lives at zero
agree (left scale) divergent (right scale)
Predict divergence
pre-close (tradeable) model
Running net move at T−60s |Δ|3.0 $
Volatility, last 60s (high−low)20.0 $
Volatility, last 300s (high−low)60.0 $
Window
Predicted P(divergent)
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pre-close model · AUC —
Base rate 3.0%. Near-flat windows (|move|→0) drive risk.
EV / $-saved calculator
skip-flagged-pairs strategy
Avg position size / pair100.0 $
Model probability threshold0.30
Strategy modelled: skip any pair whose pre-close P(divergent) ≥ threshold. Calibrated on the user's realised per-pair PnL over the observed window. Negative net = forgone profit on agreeing pairs exceeds avoided divergence loss.
Recall
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Precision
—
Avoided loss
—
Forgone PnL
—
Net saved (observed)
—
Net / day (scaled)
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Recent mismatches · last 7d
62 shown
| Close (UTC) | Win | Market | PF | PM | PF close | Net move | Δ oracle | P(div) | User PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 02 Jun 2026 15:00 | 15m | 15m-1780411500 | Down | Up | 68019.3 | -3.29 | +0.01 | 36% | $-138 |
| Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:50 | 5m | 5m-1780407900 | Up | Down | 68890.0 | +10.25 | -0.01 | 45% | $-4 |
| Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:25 | 5m | 5m-1780377600 | Down | Up | 70729.2 | -3.55 | -13.95 | 83% | $-309 |
| Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:15 | 15m | 15m-1780376400 | Up | Down | 70810.0 | +0.01 | -0.01 | 21% | $-56 |
| Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:50 | 5m | 5m-1780314300 | Down | Up | 72719.2 | -1.89 | +0.00 | 54% | $-10 |
| Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:30 | 5m | 5m-1780298700 | Down | Up | 72979.7 | -1.08 | +0.01 | 75% | $-82 |
| Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:30 | 5m | 5m-1780277100 | Up | Down | 73604.0 | +2.32 | +0.00 | 65% | $-32 |
| Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00 | 5m | 5m-1780271700 | Down | Up | 73674.4 | -8.14 | +0.01 | 70% | +$99 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 23:20 | 5m | 5m-1780269300 | Down | Up | 73934.9 | -1.14 | +0.00 | 65% | $-12 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 22:45 | 5m | 5m-1780267200 | Up | Down | 73901.3 | +3.28 | +0.01 | 78% | +$11 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 15:35 | 5m | 5m-1780241400 | Up | Down | 73752.2 | +3.57 | -0.01 | 70% | +$542 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 14:40 | 5m | 5m-1780238100 | Up | Down | 73681.0 | +3.00 | -0.01 | 70% | +$61 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 14:25 | 5m | 5m-1780237200 | Down | Up | 73581.8 | -2.24 | +0.00 | 36% | $-21 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 13:25 | 5m | 5m-1780233600 | Down | Up | 73982.0 | -1.98 | +0.01 | 67% | +$2 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 12:30 | 5m | 5m-1780230300 | Down | Up | 73933.2 | -0.15 | +0.01 | 84% | +$139 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 10:15 | 5m | 5m-1780222200 | Up | Down | 73855.1 | +3.59 | -0.01 | 81% | $-41 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 09:35 | 5m | 5m-1780219800 | Down | Up | 73950.8 | -5.18 | +5.90 | 74% | $-8 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 08:45 | 5m | 5m-1780216800 | Up | Down | 73890.0 | +3.99 | +0.00 | 63% | +$59 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 07:40 | 5m | 5m-1780212900 | Down | Up | 73840.8 | -6.53 | +0.01 | 38% | +$438 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 07:30 | 5m | 5m-1780212300 | Up | Down | 73894.0 | 0.00 | -1.64 | 67% | $-300 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 03:20 | 5m | 5m-1780197300 | Up | Down | 74156.7 | +2.69 | -0.01 | 79% | +$11 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 03:10 | 5m | 5m-1780196700 | Down | Up | 74093.1 | -6.47 | +0.00 | 86% | $-5 |
| Sun, 31 May 2026 01:10 | 5m | 5m-1780189500 | Up | Down | 74109.0 | +0.99 | -0.00 | 63% | $-8 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 23:45 | 5m | 5m-1780184400 | Up | Down | 73798.3 | +5.22 | +0.01 | 79% | $-337 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 23:30 | 5m | 5m-1780183500 | Down | Up | 73838.0 | -5.37 | +0.01 | 67% | — |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 23:30 | 15m | 15m-1780182900 | Down | Up | 73838.0 | -10.74 | +0.01 | 67% | $-1.4K |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 22:55 | 5m | 5m-1780181400 | Up | Down | 73857.2 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 85% | — |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 22:00 | 15m | 15m-1780177500 | Up | Down | 73982.0 | +0.60 | -0.00 | 76% | +$543 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 20:30 | 5m | 5m-1780172700 | Up | Down | 73966.3 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 86% | $-11 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 19:05 | 5m | 5m-1780167600 | Up | Down | 74043.8 | +0.42 | +0.01 | 74% | +$73 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 18:10 | 5m | 5m-1780164300 | Down | Up | 74018.3 | -8.89 | +0.00 | 71% | $-92 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 17:55 | 5m | 5m-1780163400 | Up | Down | 74016.0 | +4.61 | -0.00 | 78% | $-8 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 15:45 | 5m | 5m-1780155600 | Up | Down | 73875.0 | +6.02 | +0.00 | 77% | +$20 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 15:00 | 5m | 5m-1780152900 | Up | Down | 73929.1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | 83% | +$1 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 14:40 | 5m | 5m-1780151700 | Down | Up | 74034.8 | -14.23 | +0.01 | 52% | — |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 12:10 | 5m | 5m-1780142700 | Up | Down | 73600.0 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 86% | — |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 11:00 | 5m | 5m-1780138500 | Down | Up | 73655.9 | -2.31 | -0.00 | 48% | $-131 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 10:05 | 5m | 5m-1780135200 | Down | Up | 73615.0 | -0.50 | +0.01 | 77% | $-109 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 09:15 | 5m | 5m-1780132200 | Down | Up | 73546.4 | -2.33 | +0.01 | 79% | $-177 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 08:50 | 5m | 5m-1780130700 | Down | Up | 73520.0 | -0.92 | +0.01 | 82% | $-185 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 08:30 | 5m | 5m-1780129500 | Up | Down | 73556.0 | +12.01 | -7.67 | 76% | $-65 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 07:10 | 5m | 5m-1780124700 | Up | Down | 73537.3 | +1.16 | -0.01 | 86% | $-236 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 06:15 | 5m | 5m-1780121400 | Down | Up | 73536.5 | -1.94 | -0.01 | 74% | $-16 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 04:25 | 5m | 5m-1780114800 | Up | Down | 73416.3 | +0.41 | -0.00 | 77% | $-169 |
| Sat, 30 May 2026 01:35 | 5m | 5m-1780104600 | Down | Up | 73627.0 | -0.81 | +0.01 | 73% | $-99 |
| Fri, 29 May 2026 22:50 | 5m | 5m-1780094700 | Down | Up | 73464.8 | -1.23 | -0.00 | 70% | $-39 |
| Fri, 29 May 2026 10:35 | 5m | 5m-1780050600 | Up | Down | 73624.0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 57% | — |
| Fri, 29 May 2026 08:40 | 5m | 5m-1780043700 | Down | Up | 73807.8 | -0.56 | -0.01 | 74% | +$30 |
| Thu, 28 May 2026 21:30 | 15m | 15m-1780002900 | Down | Up | 73693.6 | -0.71 | +0.01 | 35% | — |
| Thu, 28 May 2026 19:45 | 5m | 5m-1779997200 | Down | Up | 73434.7 | -1.32 | -0.01 | 77% | +$29 |
| Thu, 28 May 2026 13:00 | 5m | 5m-1779972900 | Down | Up | 73518.0 | -12.00 | +0.00 | 68% | $-4 |
| Thu, 28 May 2026 10:35 | 5m | 5m-1779964200 | Up | Down | 73434.3 | +4.59 | +0.01 | 76% | +$13 |
| Thu, 28 May 2026 05:40 | 5m | 5m-1779946500 | Down | Up | 73031.9 | -1.57 | -0.01 | 42% | +$0 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 21:15 | 5m | 5m-1779916200 | Up | Down | 75167.2 | +2.07 | -0.00 | 35% | $-8 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 18:50 | 5m | 5m-1779907500 | Up | Down | 74988.0 | +2.22 | -0.01 | 77% | +$92 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 15:30 | 5m | 5m-1779895500 | Down | Up | 75352.9 | -28.72 | +0.01 | 4% | $-23 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 13:50 | 5m | 5m-1779889500 | Up | Down | 74928.9 | +0.42 | -3.68 | 26% | +$42 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 09:55 | 5m | 5m-1779875400 | Down | Up | 75922.9 | -5.19 | -1.60 | 49% | $-28 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 07:30 | 5m | 5m-1779866700 | Down | Up | 75863.8 | -3.61 | +0.00 | 79% | $-88 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 06:55 | 5m | 5m-1779864600 | Down | Up | 75856.0 | -0.65 | -0.00 | 75% | +$85 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 04:00 | 5m | 5m-1779854100 | Up | Down | 75683.0 | +9.73 | -0.01 | 53% | $-11 |
| Wed, 27 May 2026 02:50 | 5m | 5m-1779849900 | Down | Up | 75744.8 | -0.12 | +0.01 | 70% | +$25 |
Caveats. PM's exact resolver is Chainlink Data Streams (auth-gated history); the source-price columns use Binance BTCUSDT as a real-time proxy, which matches PF's recorded close reads to ~$2 but is not byte-identical to PM's report. Note PF's close reads track the real-time global price, not the BSC Chainlink push aggregator we sampled (which sat ~$100 lower over this window) — so the divergence is feed-composition, not push-feed lag. Market-mid (orderbook) features are not in the seed and are omitted. Chainlink staleness is computed only for the recent window where on-chain rounds were fetched. The pre-close model knows the running move ~60s before close; the at-close figures are a theoretical ceiling and not tradeable as-is.